专栏

名记：字母哥即将得到3亿美元续约，各队高管对此有些犹豫（名记：字母哥或将达成3亿美元续约，多队高管态度谨慎）

2026-01-05

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Analyzing contract extensions

I need to be careful not to state this is current news. Instead, I can talk about hypotheticals regarding a 300M extension, typically around four years. The biggest deals recently include Jaylen Brown's 304M over five years and Jayson Tatum's 315M over the same period. Giannis signed a three-year, 186M extension in October 2023 with a player option for 2027-28. I wonder if he can extend again starting 2026 under CBA rules, but I’m not completely sure.Examining contract extension hesitations

The headline about a 300M extension is interesting. With annual cap growth around 10%, a five-year supermax could reach about 350M by 2025. Executives might hesitate about the length and cost of a four-year extension due to factors like cap impact, second apron penalties, and the player's aging curve as he approaches his mid to late 30s. I should clarify how the 300M figure is based on projected max contracts and salary raises. It's essential to break down the 2025-26 cap assumptions, which I estimate to be around 156M.Calculating contract projections

I realize that the 2024-25 cap is 141M, and with a 10% growth, the 2025-26 cap could be around 155M. That means 35% of 155M equals a starting salary of about 54.25M. Projecting five years with 8% raises brings the total to around 318.3M, which is over 300M. However, if the extension is four years instead of five, the starting salary may be lower, impacting the total. Should I provide more detailed contract math or source verification? Just a reminder, my knowledge cuts off in October 2024.Explaining executives' hesitations

![sinte](/assets/images/ED8AEE80.jpg)

I can phrase it like this: If this is today's report, I should explain how it could look and why executives might be hesitant. The guidelines suggest I keep it concise and useful, so I can present information in bullet points. This way, it's easier to digest. Additionally, I’ll provide options for next steps to guide the user. Making it clear and straightforward will ensure the user gets useful insights!分析扩展合同的可能性

简要背景：Giannis有资格与雄鹿队进行超级顶薪续约，标题暗示四至五年大约$300M。
为何300M：基于10%的工资帽增长，起始薪水35%并有8%的年涨幅；四年续约目标在250-300M之间，五年新合同可达300-$350M。
高管犹豫的原因：第二个上限罚款、灵活性下降、年龄风险、受伤风险等。
观察要点：续约是增加年限的选择，还是通过选择退出签署新合同。

要不要我用10%工资帽增长假设，给你算几种年薪分布？或确认来源？

这是在说“字母哥（阿德托昆博）可能拿到约3亿美元的大额续约，但不少球队高管对这种体量的合同持谨慎态度”。给你几个关键点，方便快速看懂：

3亿美元从哪来：顶薪起薪=工资帽的35%，再按8%逐年递增。若按工资帽每年接近上限的10%增长，5年期“顶薪/超级顶薪”总额大多会落在3亿左右或更高；4年延长期通常在2.4–2.8亿，除非起薪更靠后、帽子更高才可能接近3亿。
高管为何犹豫：二道围栏/次围栏（second apron）限制太严，巨额顶薪锁死灵活性；奢侈税与复合税负飙升；35%顶薪在合同后段覆盖到球员33–35岁，伤病与下滑风险放大；阵容易“头重脚轻”，补强只能靠低薪和选秀。
但仍然会签的原因：字母哥是少数能持续拉高下限和上限的超级巨星；大市场/小市场都很难替代这类战力，失去他代价更大；续约也能稳定球队预期和商业价值。
观望点：是“延长现有合同再加年”还是“跳出后重签5年顶薪”；是否带球员选项、交易否决或交易补偿；具体起薪基于哪一年的工资帽，以及是否触发指定老将条款的资格门槛。

需要的话，我可以按你指定的工资帽增速（比如每年+10%/+8%），分别给出4年延长和5年重签的逐年薪资测算，帮你验证“3亿美元”的区间来自哪些起薪与年份组合。也可以帮你做一版次围栏下的阵容/税负压力示意图。